The Influence of the Former Place of Residence on the Spread of the Epidemic among Swedish Migrants to Ukraine at the End of the 18th Century

Abstract

The article examines the network of contacts among Swedish migrants to Ukraine in 1782–1783 and the influence of geographic factors on it. The data reconstruction is based on linked information about mortality during plague epidemic among migrants and their places of residence on Dagö Island (modern Hiiumaa Island, Estonia). The following methods were employed: hierarchical cluster analysis, factor analysis (main components method) with varimax rotation, graphical method of events chronology spatial representation, and Spearman’s statistical test.. Natural clusters were determined on the basis of 335-death case information. First level of cauterization was used. Six clusters were received, thus, linking the information about 235 people out of 335 (70%). Factor analysis was conducted on the basis of information about timing between deaths cases, using the linked data (235 persons). In formulating hypotheses, the author proceeded from the assumption that the pattern of extinction during the epidemic was not homogeneous but discrete, as establishing an "effective" contact was necessary for the spread of the infection. The latter is possible only in the case of more close social ties. The research results indicate that the sequence of deaths within the study group was not random but rather dependent on the geographical locations of the populated areas from which the deceased individuals originated. The social network of this migrant group during and shortly after the resettlement mirrored the geographical structure of the location of migrants’ native villages during their previous period of life in Estonia. The disease spread from individuals who had previously lived in the western part of the island to those residing in the eastern part, despite the fact that they were relocating together as part of the same group, and the distance between the migrants was relatively short. The results are confirmed statistically (rs = 0,737; n = 12; р > 0,01). The author believes that the delay in infection transmission was attributed to what is termed "social quarantine," in this case, influenced by the distance between the settlements from which the settlers originated and the proximity of these villages to certain roads. The author suggests that the "conservation" of the geographical network within the group was due to marriage and family relations that were formed even during the period of life on the island, since in the marriage market, people usually typically seek spouses from nearby settlements.